2017 Presidential Address

Date recorded Jan 09, 2017

2017 Presidential Address: Campbell Harvey

For the working paper version of Campbell Harvey’s Presidential Address, “The Scientific Outlook in Financial Economics,” please see: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2893930

The transcript of the speech and presentation slides are available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=2895842

Abstract:

It is time that we reassess how we approach our empirical research in financial economics. Given the competition for top journal space, there is an incentive to produce “significant” results. With the combination of: unreported tests, lack of adjustment for multiple tests, direct and indirect p-hacking, many of the research results that we are publishing will fail to hold up in the future. In addition, there are some fundamental issues with the interpretation of statistical significance. Increasing thresholds, such as t > 3, may be necessary but such a rule is not sufficient. If the effect being studied is rare, even a rule like t > 3 will produce a large number of false positives. I take a step back and explore the meaning of a p-value and detail its limitations. I offer a simple alternative approach known as the minimum Bayes factor which delivers a Bayesian p-value. I present a list of guidelines that are designed to provide a foundation for a robust, transparent research culture in financial economics. Finally, I offer some thoughts on the importance of risk taking (both from the perspective of both authors and editors) to advance our field.

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