Market Expectations in the Cross‐Section of Present Values

  • Author(s): BRYAN KELLY, SETH PRUITT
  • Published: Sep 10, 2013
  • Pages: 1721-1756
  • DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12060

ABSTRACT

Returns and cash flow growth for the aggregate U.S. stock market are highly and robustly predictable. Using a single factor extracted from the cross‐section of book‐to‐market ratios, we find an out‐of‐sample return forecasting R2 of 13% at the annual frequency (0.9% monthly). We document similar out‐of‐sample predictability for returns on value, size, momentum, and industry portfolios. We present a model linking aggregate market expectations to disaggregated valuation ratios in a latent factor system. Spreads in value portfolios’ exposures to economic shocks are key to identifying predictability and are consistent with duration‐based theories of the value premium.

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