The TIPS—Treasury Bond Puzzle*

  • Author(s): Matthias Fleckenstein, Francis A. Longstaff, Hanno Lustig
  • Published: Jan 30, 2013
  • DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12032


We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation‐swapped TIPS issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can differ by more than $20 per $100 notional. Treasury bonds are almost always overvalued relative to TIPS. Total TIPS–Treasury mispricing has exceeded $56 billion, representing nearly 8% of the total amount of TIPS outstanding. We find direct evidence that the mispricing narrows as additional capital flows into the markets. This provides strong support for the slow‐moving‐capital explanation of arbitrage persistence.

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