Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns

  • Author(s): WILLIAM BREEN, LAWRENCE R. GLOSTEN, RAVI JAGANNATHAN
  • Published: Apr 30, 2012
  • Pages: 1177-1189
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb02649.x

ABSTRACT

Knowledge of the one‐month interest rate is useful in forecasting the sign as well as the variance of the excess return on stocks. The services of a portfolio manager who makes use of the forecasting model to shift funds between bills and stocks would be worth an annual management fee of 2% of the value of the assets managed. During 1954:4 to 1986:12, the variance of monthly returns on the managed portfolio was about 60% of the variance of the returns on the value weighted index, whereas the average return was two basis points higher.

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