The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges

  • Author(s): ROBERT F. BAUR, PETER F. ORAZEM
  • Published: Apr 30, 2012
  • Pages: 681-695
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb05157.x

ABSTRACT

This article examines the effect of public information on the orange juice market. We investigate the rationality, information content, and price effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts of the production of oranges. U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts are found to be unbiased and efficient. The first forecast contains the most new information, and subsequent reports become valuable only when freezes occur. Significant price movements occur in response to announced production in both Florida and California. However, the majority of price variations cannot be explained by these movements in supply.

Jump to menu

Main Navigation

Search the Site / Journal

Search Keywords

Search Tips

Members' Login

Credentials

Members' Options

Site Footer

View Mobile Version