Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models

  • Author(s): STEFAN NAGEL, KENNETH J. SINGLETON
  • Published: May 23, 2011
  • Pages: 873-909
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01654.x

ABSTRACT

We find that several recently proposed consumption‐based models of stock returns, when evaluated using an optimal set of managed portfolios and the associated model‐implied conditional moment restrictions, fail to capture key features of risk premiums in equity markets. To arrive at these conclusions, we construct an optimal Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator for models in which the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a conditionally affine function of a set of priced risk factors, and we show that there is an optimal choice of managed portfolios to use in testing a null model against a proposed alternative generalized SDF.

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