Technological Growth and Asset Pricing

  • Author(s): NICOLAE GÂRLEANU, STAVROS PANAGEAS, JIANFENG YU
  • Published: Jul 19, 2012
  • Pages: 1265-1292
  • DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01747.x

ABSTRACT

We study the asset‐pricing implications of technological growth in a model with “small,” disembodied productivity shocks and “large,” infrequent technological innovations, which are embodied into new capital vintages. The technological‐adoption process leads to endogenous cycles in output and asset valuations. This process can help explain stylized asset‐valuation patterns around major technological innovations. More importantly, it can help provide a unified, investment‐based theory for numerous well‐documented facts related to excess‐return predictability. To illustrate the distinguishing features of our theory, we highlight novel implications pertaining to the joint time‐series properties of consumption and excess returns.

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